San Francisco's 2010 draft class

Okay because way too many folks showed up to my alleged going away event I could not keep a running draft diary, but I do want at least address the Niners' draft.

Going into the draft I saw three big needs: a passrusher, a right tackle, and a cornerback (that's not a reflection of any great faith in Alex Smith, but what I thought of the prospects coming out. Hopefully next year we'll be in a position to get Jake Locker).

In the first round we had two picks. The was buzz they were looking at Jimmy Clausen and when we traded from 13th to 11th I was sure they were trading up to get him. I was very relieved when the named Anthony Davis a tackle from Rutgers (who had been the guy I seen most often in mocks). There was another good tackle out there (Iowa's Bryan Bulaga who went #23 to Green Bay) so they did not need to give the 4th rounder they did to move up to get one, but Singletary supposedly loved him and I can endorse trading up to get the right guy. Plus they got the 4th rounder back next year trading down in the 3rd round. Davis is known as a bit of a slacker, but Iron Mike is probably the guy to fix him (see the other Davis: Vernon). I don't know that I think Singletary creates the most complex schemes, but he is good at getting maximum effort out of guys. Bulaga is supposedly a better runblocker, but only a RT, while Davis has the potential to be a LT down the line - although Joe Staley isn't a problem even if he isn't one of the best LTs in the league.

With our second pick in the first round we took the guy generally seen as he best guard in the draft Mike Iupati from Idaho. He is a massive roadgrader type, who reportedly isn't the smartest guy in world. I was hoping for a passrusher or corner, but this wasn't a terrible pick. To me our defense is better and it makes more sense to improve there because in the modern NFL you can't be great on both sides of the ball.

We went defense in 2nd round with Taylor Mays. I wanted a corner, not a safety, but this is not a terrible pick because he should be an upgrade over Michael Lewis (another Nolan guy waiting to be replaced). But Mays is more an athlete (great speed, strength, size) than a football player, so he will come up to help our run defense more than our pass defense. And I was not impressed with him whining at Pete Carroll.

Somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd round I usually stop knowing the names (which is longer than it used to be before I got to Gainesville and started following college ball some). But in the third round we got someone I recognized. I was watching the Capital One Bowl and there was this linebacker for Penn State who was just kicking LSU's ass. Old school Penn State doesn't have name on their jersey's so I called the Flookstar (who surprisingly was at the game - not a bad girlfriend move there) and asked him who #11 was. Naturally he did not know, but I later found out he was Navorro Bowman and that was the pick. He looked great so I was pleased, even if he apparently isn't as diligent in his conditioning as he should be and has a minor criminal record. I like the pick and bet he replaces Takeo Spikes (it may be a while though, I thought Spikes was already done when we signed him, but he sure shoved that in my face). And he might be able to be part of our passrush by committee even if he isn't a ten sack guy (our committee approach was good for third in sacks lat year, but I don't trust and feel a stud gets more consistent pressure and forces and offense to adjust in a way a committee doesn't).

San Fran then had no picks until the 6th round (5th was give to Miami for 1st round bust WR Ted Ginn - which I liked. I wish it had been a lower pick, and he shouldn't take the field on offense, but he will solve our disaster special teams and turn them into a strength).

Remarkably I knew our first 6th round pick - running back Anthony Dixon from Mississippi State. That's a good pick for value, although we are deep at runningback already and we needed a speedster more than another power back. He might switch to fullback, but I think this may end Michael Robinson's tenure unless they want to keep him just for coverage on special teams.

I should talk about my draft philosophy here. In theory I am a take the best player on your board regardless of position at all times guy because I figure if you have two great players at one spot you can find a way to make it work and cover for the spot of need you didn't draft. In reality in the early rounds when I am thinking I do think about what my teams needs though - you want a balance, don't pass on a stud to reach for a need. In the later rounds (5th round on I would say) you absolutely should just draft best available because you aren't going to get a starter there (and if you are you are a terrible team and should be planning for two years away which means you should still take best available). Dixon was that pick.

For the remaining picks I had no idea who they were or if the 49ers were using a best play or fill a hole philosophy and can really only judge them by position (to see what the front offense is thinking about our team - which is silly if the Colts take a QB in the 6th that is not a reflection on Peyton Manning. I don't know anything about the guys they got besides what the internet told me. We got a blocking TE - which we didn't have (draft one late last year, but he did not make the team), a Ten Ginn clone (speedy WR who can return) which would annoy me if wasn't just a 6th round pick, and I-AA corner who has some speed, but who is projected to be a safety in the NFL.

After the draft we signed some free agents. The biggest name was LeGarrette "The Hitman" Blount. That's now four big backs on the roster. And three character issues added (Dixon has a DUI), you have to be careful not too add too many of those or the brew is ruined. They also signed *another* return man (this one is a CB) from Florida A&M, along with a corner from Western Illinois, and a safety from Wisconsin. It's nice to know they realize the secondary needs an upgrade even most of these guys won't make the roster. The best signing in my eyes is West Virginia QB Jarrett Brown who played in a weird system but to my eyes has the mental and psychical material to be an NFL starter. Now we can cut David Carr.

Overall I would say it wasn't a bad draft if not a spectacular one, the OL gets much stronger and the defense deeper (and got two potential eventual starters). Maybe with better OL play and some more experience Alex Smith will play well enough to win the weak NFC West and next year I won't even want Jake Locker.

Yes I will.

Lions drafting

Currently on the Lions roster are only TWO players they drafted from 2000-2006. That's not just bad, that's tragic.

The only two? LT Jeff Backus & C Dominic Raiola. Ironically both are starters and were there first and second round picks in 2001 (later in the 2nd round they also took now (but possibly not for much longer) Browns DT Shaun Rogers - who is really the only other player to pan out on any level from those drafts unless you count Kalimba Edwards). But Backus is not that good and Raiola is probably best known for flipping off Lions fans in the midst of their 0-16 season.

If anyone ever tells you Bo Jackson is a great all time running back...

...tell them, no he was just flashy. In his three seasons with 100+ carries he averaged more than 70 yards a game once. In four seasons (38 games) he had just eight hundred yards games.

McNabb trade and the draft

There are a few lessons you can learn from how the Eagles parted with Donovan McNabb. The best way to trade away a star is secretly. Once the fact you are shopping a guy becomes common knowledge the price to get the player starts dropping - so you have to move quickly. Once a player knows the team is willing to part with him it is hard for a team to keep him, especially if he is a quarterback. Everyone knows that so teams will offer less. I bet Washington gets less for Albert Haynesworth than you expect if they trade him (I would pull the trigger - some players can accept being shopped and come back, but Haynesworth is a malcontent - remember how I predicted he would shut it down last year after getting paid).

As for the trade itself I am not sure what the Eagles were thinking unless this was just about salary. Despite being the best #5 ever McNabb is probably not a Hall of Famer, but he is a well above average NFL quarterback and only 33. Washington will be better with him - although not a title contender. Playoffs are realistic, but also because Mike Shanahan is improving the team in many wise ways - Danny Boy would never build an OL. The RBs are still week, I bet Willie Parker ends up with the most yards. Also by trading for McNabb they won't be tempted to blow a pick on Jimmy Clausen (not a fan of any of this years QBs).

Meanwhile having *finally* gotten some good receivers Philly downgraded at QB. I know Eagles fans have never loved McNabb, and he does skip too many passes, but Kevin Kolb is unproven. Throwing for a bunch of garbage yards once the Saints had won the game and beating the defenseless Chiefs doesn't prove much. Maybe Any Reid has seen something in practice, but reportedly he had to be convinced to part with McNabb. Also with Michael Vick on the roster (and being paid fairly well) it isn't hard to imagine the fickle Philly fans quickly calling for him if Kolb struggles.

My favorite part of the whole McNabb saga was when the Raiders were trying to get him. The press talked about how if the Raiders made that trade it would mean that JaHamburger Russell (I'll keep this short - I know some folks are tired of constant confirmation that he sucks) was a bust. Uh - the 48% completion percentage, 3 TDs to 11 INTs (in his third year), being benched for both Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski in the same season, and the constant reports about him being fat and lazy (this offseason he has reportedly "slimmed down" to 290 lbs) wasn't enough!?! But I did hear one thing I want to dispute. No matter if he never sets foot on a field again he won't be as big of a bust as Ryan Leaf. Leaf stands alone atop the pantheon of sports busts because he not only sucked he was also the consummate poison for the Chargers. I've never seen another quarterback not get high-fived by his teammates after a TD pass. Leaf fought with everyone: teammates, fans (literally had to be restrained), management (screaming matches). He turned off everyone and the cost the team fans. No one has ever damaged their franchise as much.

Speaking of busts with the draft getting close I want to address a theory that has gained currency - taking offensive tackles because they don't bust nearly as much as skill position players. That's not true, it is just that you don't remember the offensive line busts as much because A: you aren't as excited about them in the first place B: linemen are relatively faceless and C: a crappy tackle is less noticeable on a football field as a bad QB. From 1991 to 2006 (I did not do the most recent picks as we don't know about them yet) teams took 54 tackles in the first round. I'm going to call 15 (28%) of them outrights busts: Kwame Harris, Stockar McDougle, Aaron Gibson, Ernest Dye, Charles McRae, Chris McIntosh, Jamain Stephens, John Michels, Billy Milner, Bernard Williams, Andre Johnson, Trezelle Jenkins, Stan Thomas, George Foster, and Kenyatta Walker. How many of those names do you know? And that is not counting a bunch of guys who played just for a few years, bounced around to several teams, ended up at right tackle or guard, etc. Robert Gallery, Antone Davis, Pat Harlow, Victor Riley, Leonard Davis, Ross Verba, L.J. Shelton, Alex Barron, and Vernon Carey. How happy would you be to get those guys out of a first round pick? That is another 9 guys (17%). Thus 24 guys - almost half - are at least disappointments. And ten others did not make a single Pro Bowl but at least were regular starters - your Jeff Backus's of the world. And there question off the payoff. If you have a first round pick won't you rather get a great quarterback than a great left tackle? Would you rather find an average QB or an average tackle? Further the stats reveal that your odds of finding a stud tackle aren't higher than finding a quality player at "high risk" positions. 37% of first round tackles made the Pro Bowl at once from those fifteen drafts while compared to 30% of receivers (18 of 61) and 41% of QBs (15 of 37). Plus it is easier to find quality players at tackle in later rounds. Seven tackles made it to Hawaii out of the second round in the years examined. As did and equal number of receivers - but 66 receivers were drafted against just 32 tackles. Don't believe the hype. And realize now with everyone thinking tackles are a safe pick they are reaching for them more, so there are going to be more busts in the future not less.