Wednesday, August 09, 2006

2006 NFL predictions

AFC

NFC

EAST

EAST

1) Patriots – Mainly be default, I’m not expecting Chad Jackson to carry them of the deal Branch. They are not a real contender anymore, contenders don’t sign retired linebackers. Watch out if Brady gets caught up in Barry Bond’s steroid trial.

1) Cowboys – This is the hardest division to pick, and the pokes are no lock over New York and Philly, but they were 9-7 last year and adding Terrell Owens should be enough to give you a division crown (and Vanderjagt will give them one more win at some point too). Don’t believe the media hype, Parcells dealt the LT and Meshawn, he can live with TO because they both want to win and will work for it. Owens may be a headcase, and showing some age, but Drew Bledsoe can get it deep to him (on target is another issue) and they have plenty of other weapons in Justin Witten, Terry Glenn, and the Julius Jones/Marion Barber double-headed backfield. They also tinkered with the OL. On defense they have some bodies on the line, DeMarcus Ware has a year experience and they added Bobby Carpenter and linebacker, and the secondary has some depth but don’t believe the hype about Roy Williams. Yes he is a big hitter, but he is very beatable in coverage. Actually watch him sometime rather than just ESPN highlights and you’ll see he is no Pro-Bowler.

2) Dolphins – while they ended hot with six wins, four were over the murder’s row of the Jets, Bills, Raiders, and Titans. Another win was over the Pats backups in Week 17 (and only by 2 points). I’m not sold. Sure lots of teams have built on a string of wins at the end of the season, but more haven’t (Bills with Bledsoe, several Bungles teams of the 90s, etc). The defense is a year older – and Jason Taylor is divorcing Zach Thomas’s sister. The offense added Culpepper, who looked lost without Moss (who you would never confuse Chambers for) – the Vikings went on a tear once he went down. And Dante has always been a turnover risk. And they don’t have Ricky to spell Ronnie Brown, who might not be a big enough back to be carrying the rock 25 times for 16 games. They have two new coordinators too (so Culpepper is learning a new system as well as rehabbing). I don’t want to kill them, they might get as many as ten wins and make the playoffs, but they will still be looking up at New England.

2) Eagles – I bet you are surprised, but this is the same core of guys who went to three championship games without the Diva. Yes their WRs are awful (trading for Stallworth doesn’t change that - he’s one dimensional a deep threat with hamstring issues), but they always have been. Look at their starters everywhere else and you are seeing a talented team. McNabb, Westbrook, L.J. Smith, good OL, added Darren Howard (a possible Hall of Famer had he spent his whole career in a bigger market) and Bunkley to the DL to go with Kearse, Patteson, Cole Walker, and Rayburn, that’s quite a rotation for a DL in the salary cap age, still have Trotter, and a starting four in the secondary of Sheppard, Brown, Lewis, and Dawkins – the best safety in the game – and lots of depth. You are telling me this batch can’t win ten games? Hell the have David Akers too. The only way they are home come January is if Reid calls 60 pass plays a game…again.

3) Jets – They will be rebuilding for a few years: Barlow is no Curtis Martin, they only have one WR or TE worth anything and Coles is a possession guy at this point in his career, the OL is young (or untalented depending on who they start), and they traded best defender to Atlanta in John Abraham. However if Pennington somehow recovers they may not be terrible (if not they are picking in the top 5 in April), and will have a step up on their rebuilding project.

3) Giants – I’m worried about putting New York down there, but one of these three has to be third and being shut out in a home playoff game makes you a candidate. Eli really took a step back in December (4 TDs to 7 Ints – although they did go 4-1, of course none of the 4 made the postseason). Barber is over 30 and they don’t have a legit backup. Burress disappeared down the stretch. Strahan is 34 and going through and ugly divorce, and Coughlin’s act is always a risk to wear thin suddenly (guys will hold their tongues while you win, but on a losing streak they will blame it on hard practices). Yes they added Arrington, but no one was beating down the door to get him – he has never truly been a star. And while they blew up the secondary I’m not sure it is better, just older – Sam Madison!?

4) Bills – On the whole they have more talent than the Jets with Maghee and pretty good defense. However that defense isn’t good enough to carry them to the postseason. Their only WR is a Lee Evans who is a #2 deep threat, not a #1, their OL sucks, and their QB will either be Kelly Holcombe – an okay journeyman backup who can get a hot hand, but should not be a starter (ask Cleveland), NFLEurope allstar Craig Nall, or probably J.P. Losman who I am more than willing to already call a bust. When the Jets lost Martin for the season I considered moving Buffalo up to third, but Pennington has looked good in the preseason and none of the Bills QBs have, plus Dick Jauron is a known stiff.

4) Washington – I had them fourth last year and they made it to the second round of the playoffs (barely), but I’m not afraid to pan them again. Brunell somehow managed to last the season last year, it won’t happen again. He tailed off as the season went to its second half anyway. The exact same could be said of Santana Moss. We’ll see what Portis can do on his own (unless Antwaan Randle El is much better than I expect), at least the OL is good. They added Adam Archuleta (see Roy Williams) and Andre Carter to the defense while losing LaVar Arrington – that is a lateral move at best. I will give credit to defensive coordinator Greg Williams, he can probably make it work, it is scoring points I’d be worried about. For what it is worth they are the best 4th place team in the league – tough division, they might contend if they were in the North.

NORTH

NORTH

1) Steelers – They are not going to repeat: they got hot at the right time last year, but were not dominant (of course that is what I said about the Pats five years ago). The running game will take a step back but their passing game will be a little better with Heath Miller no longer a rookie and Big Ben with a second season under his belt. All the “Cowher is retiring” speculation won’t help either.

1) Lions – Am I serious about this? Sure, there is always some team the catches everyone by surprise. Kevin Jones and Roy Williams are possible budding stars, they have the defense. Mike Martz was an awful head coach because he could not manage a game, not because he could not draw up plays. Marinelli is supposedly a no nonsense coach who won’t let Martz pass 60 times a game. Kitna is not a long term answer (let alone Josh “Thank you Jesus” McNown), but an average veteran can occasionally have Pro-Bowl year. Just ask Mark Rypien. That said anyone other than the Packers might end up with the title.

2) Bungles – I thought Carson Palmer would be a big bust when he came out, but the numbers he put up last season were impressive. I’m still not convinced he will be a great NFL quarterback, but coming around. He’s got a great surrounding cast (Rudi Johnson never gets enough credit) but I’m not picking them win because the defense is still weak to the run (Sam Adams is getting up there and they have no one else) and they had about a quarter of the team get busted this offseason (and answering questions about that is making Marvin testy – especially since they keep adding guys with records to the defense). I’m not worried about Palmer’s knee, the guy is a drop-back passer (why does no one in the media commenting on this? He had 41 yards rushing in 16 games last year), it is no bigger deal than if I blew my knee out.

2) Bears – I’m not picking them to repeat for no good reason other than the Bears traditionally have one good year and then fall back. Head coach Lovie Smith did not get a contract extension – what does that tell you about the faith of the front office in this squad? Defense is still good (although the secondary is vulnerable as they found in the playoffs last year). And offense should have a more dynamic QB than Kyle Orton this year. Grossman really did lift that team when he came back. Alas neither he nor Griese are first tier starters – yet somehow they have a QB controversy that will fester.

3) Ravens – If McNair can start 14-16 games they are a playoff team, maybe even win the division. However you will notice I have them listed third, so you can guess what I think about his chances of staying health (old and shady OL is not a good mix). Ten starts by Kyle Boller should be enough to get Billick the firing he has deserved for a while. It will finally become apparent to everyone that Ray Lewis has been on a downslide for years. Jamal has also lost a step.

3) Vikings – Chester Taylor is not a starter in the NFL, Brad Johnson probably isn’t anymore and has always been fragile, they don’t have a clear #1 receiver (even Koren Robinson never might have been), and their new head coach keeps mouthing off in the press (if you cut Dante you can stop talking about him). All that said the OL is very good (better be with a $49 million guard) and ironically now that they have killed the offense by dumping Culpepper and Moss the defense is pretty solid. The Dwight Smith signing was a bigger pickup than you might realize.

4) Browns – The rest of the league will have had a whole summer to study Charlie Frye and I bet he takes a step back. Hot rookie QBs frequently do their sophomore seasons - however I do thing he might work long term. He will need more talent around than he has right now (Edwards may rebound, but Winslow?), especially on defense (digging up Ted Washington’s dead body? Man, that is cold). Too bad about Bentley.

4) Packers – Favre came back for this? They will be one of the worst teams in the league. He will be playing behind an awful offensive line, with a bunch retread or unproven runningbacks (all coming off injury), and one (and only one) talented receiver in Donald Driver. With a defense that can’t stop anyone and suspect first time head coach it will be a long season.

SOUTH

SOUTH

1) Colts – No brainer, who else will challenge? They will miss James. Despite what everyone says James’s success was neither all him or all the rest of the team, but a mix.

1) Panthers – I sure pegged them last year and they are only better. DeAnglo Williams is the best rookie RB, Meshawn can be a good #2 WR (provided his ego will let him), Kris Jenkins is back, and free agent Maake Kemoeatu will stuff the run right next to him. If they can stay healthy they will be a force.

2) Jaguars – Great defense, but the offense just lacks the umph to scare anyone. Leftwich is still young, but he needs to be consistent. At least early in the season they will miss Jimmie Smith. The RB situation is a mess. I would ride Fragile Fred for the 6-8 games he will stay healthy at the start of the season and hopefully by the time his hammy snaps someone else will be ready to step up (…but not Greg Jones).

2) Buccaneers – Last year they drafted Cadillac Williams found Joey Galloway and Chris Simms. Galloway is probably going to revert to his often injured form, if he does hopefully Michael Clayton will rebound from his injury ridden sophomore campaign to show the Pro-Bowl form of his rookie year to still give the Bucs a set of triplets. Gruden is no dummy and the defense is still solid despite most of the famous faces of years past having departed. Simms is the potential weak link, he looked solid last year, but had a bad habit of flopping big games at UT.

3) Titans – As I said last year (correctly), there is more talent here than you realize. I don’t predict much as I expect they will force Vince out onto the field early so he can demonstrate he is a bust as soon as possible. Emergency signing of Kerry Collins is probably not good news.

3) Falcons – They do have some talent, probably the best pass rushing DL in the league now that they added Abraham to Kearny and Coleman. With Milloy and another DB they drafted early bolstering the secondary too, the defense will be okay. Unfortunately they did not do much with the offense. Vick has never developed into a quality QB and the best receiver remains Alge Crumpler unless one of the youngster first-rounders develops in a hurry (my money is Roddy White will before Michael Jenkins). They made a move for Ashley Lelie. He is far from a true #1 (may not even start), but is a help. The real issue remains the Vick needs to figure it out – he may be sent packing for Matt Schaub (who!?!) next year if he doesn’t.

4) Texans – They should have drafted Reggie Bush. I know in the draft I said it was not a huge mistake, but now Davis is hurt. With Bush, Carr, Andre Johnson, and Eric Moulds, they would have been able to score enough to make some noise. That defense won’t carry them. Carr isn’t that bad, they might finish above Tennessee.

4) Saints – If Brees’s arm recovers and Bush lives up the hype New Orleans might make some noise, they have the offensive line. However they won’t go far: I suspect Horn is past his prime and they traded Stallworth - who will replace him!? He wasn’t much, but can you name another WR on this team?. The defense leaves a lot to be desired, the DL is functional, but the secondary is weak and linebackers awful (as they have been for years – why haven’t they tried to upgrade?). I don’t know what I think of rookie coach Sean Payton, but I know he has some rebuilding to do.

WEST

WEST

1) Broncos – It is possible the fragily-psyched Jake Plummer will crap the bed now that they drafted Jay Cutler, but they won last year with the same bunch and the rest of the division got worse. Javon Walker was a major pickup.

1) Rams – I’m not just nailing the Seahawks because Super Bowl losers have been tanking lately. Linehan is a good coach, at least as an offensive coordinator. And there is plently of talent – Marc Bulger Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, Kevin Curtis, Isaac Bruce, and a solid offensive line. With a coach who knows how to call timeouts they might catch a lot of people by surprise and have enough talent spread out on defense (Little, Glover might have some left, Coakley, Tinoisamoa, Witherspoon, and Chavous) and a solid new coordinator in Haslett to win 11-12 games.

2) Chiefs – Kansas City lost both of their starting tackles. Can Larry Johnson for 16 games and not get hurt? Probably not, but they better hope so as the offense is not much more. Their only addition is Ty Law, who is an upgrade, but no longer a Pro-Bowler. Herm is a good coach, but this team needs a makeover (for the ladies: I mean they need some different players, not that they should change their uniforms) – starting with getting some young receivers.

2) Seahawks – Maybe they deserved to win the Super Bowl if the refs hadn’t screwed up (and maybe not), but they were hardly a team for the ages. However they are better on paper than last year adding Julian Peterson, who will return to All-Star form now that he is two years removed from blowing out his achilles (and left the 49ers), and a good #2 WR in Nate Burleson. Losing Hutchinson will hurt, but not kill this team. So why am I having them lose out to the Rams? They took the league by surprise and stayed healthy all last year which won’t happen twice and their depth is not great.

3) Chargers – With Brees they are a playoff team, but unless Rivers surprises I see a .500 team this year. Might cost Marty his job, which is too bad because you can talk about a 5-12 playoff record all you want, but that still means he makes the playoffs all the time, and he was just one fumble away from a Super Bowl.

3) Cardinals – Edge will make this team better, but he won’t be as good as he was (see my Colts comment): 1,100-1,200 yards and 7-8 TDs. However they still have a poor OL protecting a fragile (and hardly all-pro anymore) QB in Kurt Warner (Lienart may be “NFL ready” but he is still a rookie). The defense has some talent now – not guys you’ve probably heard of, but if they mesh they could be above average (not much above average, but you build slowly). I still think highly of Dennis Green.

4) Raiders – Replacing Kerry Collins with Aaron Brooks is like replacing Aaron Brooks with Kerry Collins. [UPDATE: or maybe not, they just signed Jeff George. How desperate do you have to be?] Can Moss stay healthy? Doesn’t matter, especially if Jerry Porter walks. They added Micheal Huff to the secondary (you probably remember him as that #7 guy for Texas kicking the crap out of Reggie Bush in the Rose Bowl) he’s fast and talented – too bad no one else on that defense is.

4) 49ers – I think UF has a real chance to win the SEC this year. Let’s go Gators!! Chomp! Chomp! Ugh, okay I won’t try to rant too much about my boys the way I did last year. Amazingly year two in a rebuilding process not only haven’t they gotten any better, they’ve actually managed to get worse. Lost their only star in Julian Peterson (and Andre Carter, but I don’t care, never saw a less effect DE with 10 sacks – the only ten times he got pressure all year). Traded away Barlow when the only other back on the roster is Mr. Hurt Frank Gore. They added Larry Allen who has a year left, two tops. So he will be done by the time San Fran is ready to do anything – brilliant. Not as though they don’t already have a slew of young linemen who need experience (they also let another one walk last year). Other free agent additions include ten year veteran CB Walt Harris who never even was a great player (ask Chicago, Indy, and Washington) and the guy who threw a jersey at Bill Parcells (although Bryant does have some talent, not #1 talent, but some talent nonetheless). Maybe a really fast, but raw, rookie tight end can solve all their problems. Maybe they will have a top ten pick for the third year in a row.

PLAYOFFS

PLAYOFFS

Wildcard Teams

Wildcard Teams

Dolphins

Eagles

Chiefs (LJ is pretty damn good). Thought a lot about the Bungles, but teams with weak defenses and lots of hotheads don’t usually come together that well.

Seahawks (might be Bucs or Bears, or even Gaints, but whoever it is they are one and done).

Wildcard Winners

Wildcard Winners

Chiefs

Eagles

Pats

Rams

Divisional Winners

Divisional Winners

Chiefs (has to be an upset somewhere)

Panthers

Broncos

Eagles

AFC Champ

NFC Champ

Broncos

Panthers (Carolina-Philly will be the best game of the year)

Super Bowl winner: Panthers – I picked them last year (over the Chiefs) and they came within one game despite a myriad of injuries. It would be nice to see Delhomme get recognized as one of the best QBs in the league. There is no way Jake the Snake can hold it together long enough to win ring.

2006 NFL draft diary

I don’t know why I decided to keep a draft diary. The idea only occurred to me only shortly before the draft. Its not nostalgia for my two trips there (write up of 2003 adventure available). Anyway I tuned in on ESPN. I’m not a big fan of Mel Kiper, while he admits he makes mistakes (although the only one he brings up is Andre Ware) no one ever goes back and checks his predictions. Mel does put a lot of time, but he is only one who does this so we have no idea if he is actually good – maybe someone else would be better. I do know when he breaks down NFL team needs for the draft I tend to disagree as much as I agree (admittedly that is not his bread and butter).

ESPN starts with some stupid music video type intro. They’ve been annoying me lately, the need to remember they are a sports network (more news, less entertainment). And Sportscenter broadcasters are not celebrities. That said they now keep their little scroll going throughout the commercials so if a pick comes you will know instantly. The network remains the only reason to get cable.

Pick

Reaction

1

I would have gone with Bush, but Williams is not a blunder the way some have represented. While I had them 1 and 1A, I don’t think Bush will be as great as so many expect. He beat up on crappy Pac-10 defenses and didn’t look spectacular against a real defense in UT. I also wonder about his intelligence not only because of that insane lateral in the Rose Bowl, but also because he handled that whole his parents free house issue terribly (you can blame the agents for not telling him what to say, but a smart guy can handle himself). Furthermore he wasn’t so great to be a multiple year starter and had LenDale White taking a bunch of carries and yards, especially inside. Makes one wonder how complete of a back he can be. Williams also has some issues, heart questions related to the fact that he got most of his sacks in bunches against crappy teams. That said I do tend to value a good defensive lineman more than a running back, although a once in a generation explosive talent that can totally change a team is tough to pass up. To win a game you have to take risks, and you have to in order to build a great team as well.

2

ESPN just mentioned that the 49ers had spoken the Saints about trading up to get Bush. My first reaction was negative as running back is one of the few positions we are not thin at and the roster need lots of depth so giving up two first-rounders will hurt that. However San Fran needs some type of playmaker on offense and had the made that move I would have supported it. As for the Saints, Bush was no brainer pick, anyone else would be a huge mistake. The question now is what to do with Deuce McAllister (ironically picked while they still had Ricky Williams), trade seems obvious. The first team that leaps to mind is Indy. Saints could get the 30th overall pick and possibly a late rounder, not bad for a guy with injury issues coming of knee surgery. He has a long-term deal so the Colts could get him under the cap (as the signing bonus cap space would stay in New Orleans).

3

Mistake!! Vince is going to be bust. Bad throwing motion and more importantly he was a guy won with his feet in college, not his arm. I never saw a quarterback who could read NFL defenses. For the record I think Cutler is going to be the best QB to come out of this draft (Leinart is next of the big three. Weak arm or not he is smart, and that matters more in the end.), but you knew no one would take him here. No NFL GM would have the balls (I would) as that is a move that could end you career. Smart move would have been to trade down a little ways because no one is going to take Cutler anytime soon. I don’t like getting rid McNair (who supposed the Ravens are desperate to get) either. I feel he is a future Hall of Famer who still has plenty of ability. The best case scenario for Tennessee would to be renegotiate with McNair and let him play for a couple more years (as Young will need at least that long to be ready to start in the NFL). McNair does have injury issues which would be the only justification for cutting him (he did play 14 games last year). Volek can hold down the fort admirably for a few seasons and could be a long-term starter for some team if they trade him if Vince is ever ready.

4

Kiper just compared Leinart to Joe Montana. I don’t like comparing rookies to Hall of Farmers, but especially not comparing them to the best QB ever (that’s not bias, Joe was the best – although my defensiveness about it may be). I don’t know what I would do here. I think a healthy Pennington is a great NFL quarterback, although I know we may never see that again. Moving down the chart I think Ramsey can be pretty good once he mentally recovers from the Washington madhouse. Jets have lots of holes and won’t be playing for the playoffs this year so they should be collecting talent. Either Ferguson or Leinart would have made sense here. I’ve heard Ferguson is not that nasty, but a great tackle is irreplaceable. Still probably should gone with Leinart, no position is more valuable.

5

They should have taken Leinart, Rodgers is not an NFL starter. Hawk will be a good linebacker, but not someone who make a team.

6

At first I was hoping the Niners would get Williams, and once it became clear there was no chance he would fall I was hoping for Hawk. I kept imagining how the draft could break down so he would slip past Green Bay (we need defensive help everywhere – corner most of all, but there are not any worth the sixth). When I first started seeing mock drafts with San Fran taking that fast TE Vernon Davis I was sick to my stomach. A TE at 6?! However as I started to think about it more (I could not come up with a scenario that Hawk would fall so I had to consider it) and reflected on the fact that this is the least talented team in the league (yes, 32nd overall for both offence and defense) and have no playmakers on offense, at this point they should just be taking best talent available regardless of position. You can have a good offense with a TE as your best receiver (see KC or San Diego) and Antonio Bryant is not a #1, but could be a good second option. I’m not sold on Smith at all yet, but he may work out, so passing on Leinart was for the better. Hopefully Davis can serve as a security blanket for the young QB.

7

In some ways this is a good pick, to me Huff is the most likely Hall of Famer in the draft, I would have lived with the 49ers taking him very easily. I would have taken Leinart though, he shouldn’t be falling this far and the Raiders are not going to win many games with Aaron Brooks, unless he suddenly regains the form he had early in his career (which made me think he could be a multiple pro-bowler) – possible if he had more talent around him than he did with the perpetually floundering Saints (not that he will in Oakland).

8

Whoa!!! Not only this is a huge reach it makes no sense as the secondary is probably the deepest spot on the defense (and possibly the team). This guy better work out.

9

Leinart’s agent was just interviewed and tried to shovel the manure back into the horse. Detroit should have taken a quarterback because it will only take about half the season for them to realize that Kitna and McNown are not the future. Furthermore if you are going to take a defender Bunkley is the best one out there. I know they need help at linebacker, but defensive linemen are more valuable and he could team up with the talent they already have there

Plus Sims has a tendency to overpurse. I don’t like this pick.

10

Makes sense as Kurt Warner can’t last possibly last sixteen games. I would have thought of anyone that Denny Green would have had the intelligence and guts to take Cutler before Leinart. So the golden boy falls to ten when he would have been #1 overall last year (and would have made me feel better than Alex Smith). That’s a lot of money and he will be bashed for the decision. Matt’s been taking a lot of heat lately for supposedly being a cool LA guy who does not love the game. That I don’t buy, he went back into college to win, that says a lot to me. Still he left a bunch of money on the table, a least he did not plummet the way Aaron Rodgers did last year. That was painful even for me. Kiper says Matt was #3 on his overall list (#1 QB), odd he never mentioned that while the guy was falling isn’t it? He again compares him to Montana. Bah.

11

Shannan figured it out, trading to get up. Steve Young some on the air to declare he liked Cutler the best too: “he’s a football player.” Jaws also likes him best of the big three. I liked him because I tend to value QBs not from big programs more because if the get a good rep while surrounded with no talent it means more. Cutler is a classic pocket quarterback, he has a good arm and is smart in reading defenses. Plus he is going to be able to ride the bench for a season to learn the NFL game, which is what every team should do. Plummer can play for another year just to confirm he will never win a Super Bowl. Plummer is getting older too, the whole team is – Rod Smith is 36, so this is the first step to building the next generation (Lelie will be gone and Bell is injury prone). Michael Irvin and Tom Jackson liked Young best (I rest my case with Irvin, he’s an idiot, entertaining, but little more).

12

My buddy from Cleveland just called me to celebrate the Browns taking Bunkley. Then they made a good move trading down and picking up an extra sixth rounder. Let Baltimore take the run stuffer (Ngata) and hopefully that will shut up “Slash” Lewis complaining about not being protected by the DL.

13

Wow I am surprised they passed on Bunkley, to me the most complete lineman in the draft. I guess they felt ancient Ted Washington (38) will last a while and they could focus on getting a pass rusher.

14

Winner winner we have winner. Add bonus it was rumored Philly was thinking about trading up to eight with the Bills for Bunkley. The Freak, Darren Howard (underrated – one of the best DEs in the league), Cole, Grasmanis, Jasper, Rayburn, Walker, Patterson, and now Bunkley (Thomas is on his way out and McDougle is a bust). That is a hell of a DL – pretty much any of them are better what the Niners have. ESPN points out three FSU defenders have now gone. Surprisingly given that their defense was not outstanding last year, although that mainly due to an awful secondary.

15

Rams needed a corner, makes sense. Mel chimes in with that the everyone thought the Rams would have good corners going into last year but it turned out to not be that way. What was I saying about him not really know much about the NFL? In August of 2005 were you thinking the Rams had good corners? Was your dad? Your brother? Your friends? Your girlfriend? Do you even know the names Jerametrius Butler or Travis Fisher?

16

Weird: Chris Berman points out that now we are to teams with winning records. No teams finished 7-9 and only one (Atlanta) was 8-8. Hill, the guy the Rams took, is 5-9, this guy Allen is one of those taller CBs. Everyone wants one, but I think a lot of guys thinking they are drafting a corner will even up with a safety (my guy Huff included). You would rather have someone tall out there, nothing is more annoying then seeing a ball fly over your guy’s head when he in position, but a team is better off drafting some you know can cover. College safety to NFL corner is a tough transition, and a lot of these long legged guys just don’t let you change directions that quickly. Irvin actually just said Allen is a NFL safety. Looks as though the DB run as started.

17

ESPN replays Vikings botching the seventh pick in 2003. I was there for that and it brings back memories everyone there looked around at each other, no one had ever seen this before; nobody had any explanation: we were all laughing (save those fans of the franchise in Minnesota). And memories of greeting one of the two Vikings fans in my department (in Washington DC – who knew Vikings traveled) with “Hey Jason…how many Vikings executives does it take to make a pick? Evidently one more.” As for the pick it is not bad, although I would have thought they would maybe go for a RB (I’m not a Chester Taylor fan and after next season neither you won’t be either) rather than a LB as their defense is better than their offense. They need a QB of the future because Brad Johnson isn’t bad, but is old and has always been injury prone or some WR depth because they are banking on Koren Robinson, but there is no one at that position worth this spot.

18

Makes sense to get another linebacker as they run the 3-4, although given their thin secondary they might have taken a DB. I’m happy they passed on that position as the 49ers pick in four spots and I don’t want a run on them.

19

Four Seminole defenders now. Ironically after my last comment it is a corner, but this dude didn’t play a game last year (knee injury). I don’t remember thinking he was all that great. The Chargers have spent a bunch picks on DB the last few years (one they just traded to San Fran for one of our busts), maybe this one will work out. Or maybe not as the talking heads are bashing the pick saying he was playing against crappy QBs in his highlights.

20

I expected the Chiefs to take a DB, but there is no spot on defense Kansas City doesn’t need an upgrade (although they need an end a lot less then a corner). Hey, more options for San Fran. Just as a note: when they played the guy’s highlight reel as they do after every pick on of his highlights was getting a sack when no one touched him – what a stud.

21

At this point my friend called from Italy, so I was on the phone as I watched for the next 6-7 picks. Anyway Dillon is getting old as evidenced by all the time he missed last season, so taking a back makes sense (other options would be corner, linebacker, or receiver, but there was less talent at those positions). However of the four big name RBs after Bush I rank them in this order: Williams, Addai, Maroney, and White. Williams is the best pure runner, Addai is the most versatile, White looked to be a good power back but has had a bunch of issues since the season ended.

22

Well so much for hoping the DBs would last. I admit this was unexpected, but as I said earlier they need help everywhere and that certainly includes passrush as Peterson and Carter left as free agents. Manny Lawson was a DE at NC State, but at 240 he will hop to outside linebacker to replace Julian Peterson in our 3-4. San Fran will be thin at CB again, they don’t pick again until midway in the third rounder (they traded their second and first third for this pick) and you just don’t get an instant starter there.

23

First offensive lineman since Ferguson at four, and that is an unusually long wait. Also surprisingly it is not Winston Justice the tackle from USC projected to go 10-15 (but he is a pothead with an attitude). Bucs get a blocker for Cadillac and Simms Jr., call it a need pick.

24

At some point in every draft the names stop to have meaning to fans. When I was at the draft and went the second day there were a few “experts” who knew these guys, but most of us were mainly just judging if the position of the pick filled a perceived need. I’m not a big college football guy (besides UF) and it as reached this point for me. I don’t know Jonathan Joseph, but I do know the Bungles defense is not that great. The main problem is they are soft in the middle against the run, but credit to Marvin Lewis for recognize his corners are not that good despite the fact he has been able to get by with James and O’Neal (O’Neal is the weak link – gambles too much).

25

Everyone said it was a weak WR draft, but I did not expect it would take this long for the first to go. The Steelers just traded up to take Santino Holmes. Smart move to avoid the Gator Chad Jackson, who most had as the best of a sorry bunch. As I said before (check my blog) I don’t think Jackson is a first rounder. This was guy who, despite leading the SEC in catches, the other coaches did not respect enough to vote him to 1st team All-SEC. Again I don’t want to bash Chad too much, he can be an NFL starter, but just not a #1 option (and thus not a first round pick) – put him opposite some and he will work out quite well. Anyway Pittsburgh has someone to put opposite Ward and with Miller (the TE) is his second year Holmes should not have too much pressure, which is good because rookie receivers rarely do much. Just as a note in 2003 (the first draft I went to) it wasn’t until the 23rd pick that the first RB was taken, which is also a long wait. It was Willis McGahee. Larry Johnson went to KC four picks later.

26

Good move by Buffalo. After botching the 8th pick by not strengthening the center of their DL with Bunkley, they trade with the Bears and get a DT, although the experts say he is a reach. Rarely do I knock a team for trading down, but Chicago, despite their record last year, are not so good they can afford to be sitting on their roster (not many free agent moves either). I bet they take a step back and don’t make the playoffs this season.

27

Happy trails Stephen Davis, you were an underappreciated, borderline great back, but now you are old and gone. In an example when a need and a talent match DeAngelo Williams steps into a great situation. Panthers know what the are doing: Foster will probably sign his one year tender and be change of pace guy (a good way to try to keep his injury prone self on the field for 16 games) for a year until the know Williams can handle the job full time. With Williams and Meshawn to take pressure off Steve Smith this will be a much better offense next year. The defense did lose Ricky Manning and downgraded at linebacker (Diggs and Adams for Witherspoon), but if Kris Jenkins comes back and teams with running stuffing FA signee Maake Kemoeatu the defense will still be solid. I think I am picking Carolina as my Super Bowl winner again this year.

28

At this point in the draft good teams are just filling out their rosters. Jax doesn’t necessarily need a TE, but they have no enormous holes (12-4 remember). They could use someone to eventually replace Fragile Fred and a second corner, but getting a quality TE makes as much sense as anything else – after their starter is Kyle Brady who has never been mentioned as one of the league’s best.

29

Jets take another offensive lineman. With better blocking maybe they can squeeze another year out of Curtis Martin.

30

Addai is the most complete back of the four after Bush. He is the one who makes the most sense to replace James as he easily is the best receiver.

31

Definitely a need pick as they let two starters go and Hamlin is coming back from getting his head broken in a bar fight. Mel Kiper informs us he is a safe pick.

32

DE is not really a need spot for the Gaints, they need a WR far more as Toomer doesn’t have much left. Gaints have a number of places were they have okay, not great, starters – DT leaps to mind. Strahan is getting up there so if this guy can eventually replace him it is a good pick, which must be the rational. They just took a DE in the third round last year.

Okay the first round is over. I’m surprised Winston Justice and Chad Jackson (a surprise given all the buzz he had) are still on the board (and to a lesser extent LenDale White). Only one receiver in the first round and not many trades (and none involving players or first rounders next year).

I’m still watching, but I know no one cares about the second round (if they did about the first) and I have a boring paper about politics in Poland and Italy to write (oh that’s right I’m supposed to be doing something with my life – stupid grad school). Also as an aside have you ever you heard the phrase “politics in Poland and Italy?” Me neither.

I want to close with another prediction – Charlie Whitehurst from Clemson will be a very talented NFL quarterback. I would say Brodie Croyle, but I don’t trust his health.

2005 playoff predictions

I thought I would pass along my NFL playoff predictions. Given that my preseason Super Bowl pick was Panthers over Chiefs take these with a grain of salt. On the other hand I did win the fantasy league (for those were curious the “person” I did not want in the league ended up sixth out of ten, or behind Mike Bowen who wasn’t even playing. Although still ahead of Captain Clueless, or as I like to call him: my friend Maury).

Wildcard:

*Pats defeat Jags – Jags don’t have the offense to exploit the beat up Pats secondary, certainly not with a rusty Leftwich and beat up RBs.

*Steelers defeat Bengals – Bungles don’t know how to win yet, Carson is still pretty green. Their run defense is terrible (their secondary is overrated too).

*Panthers defeat Giants – Panthers have been hot and cold all year, and the Giants are capable of winning at home (not on the road). However Manning has come back to earth in hurry as they backed into the playoffs and their defense is beat up.

*Bucs defeat Washington – Simms has really taken a step lately, and given all the injuries Washington has at CB he should be fine. Brunell is not going to be able to run away from Rice, even if he had two healthy knees.

Divisional:

*Colts defeat Steelers – Colts will just be able to outscore them, Pittsburgh’s defense is not as good as in past years.

*Pats defeat Broncos – This is a risky pick on my part, especially given how much trouble Denver has historically given New England, but I have more faith in Belichick to outsmart Plummer than the other way around. The Pats health front seven will be able to shut down Anderson and Bell and force Plummer to carry them. I’m not sold on Denver’s D as they are relying on two rookie corners opposite Champ, Brady and Branch can beat that.

*Seahawks defeat Panthers – As I mentioned Carolina is hot and cold. That happens when you only have one legit WR and a suspect running game. Seattle will easily be able to shut down Foster.

*Bucs defeat Bears – This will be a great game and I see it going either way. However the Bucs played Chicago tough when they played and can do it. They have plenty of experience and Cadillac will be relatively fresh for a rookie because he didn’t play as much in the middle of the season. Grossman has seven career starts and I think against the Bucs that spells trouble. It is very hard to win it all with a great defense and no offense.

Championship:

*Colts defeat Patriots – After beating them 40-21 in New England, Manning and company aren’t afraid of them anymore even if the Pats are healthier now. I am assuming this year they will figure out to attack the Pats broken down secondary deep.

*Seahawks defeat Bucs – I don’t like going with two number one seeds, but I don’t see the Bucs pulling this one off. While they might be able to shut down the subpar Seattle WRs and make them one dimensional and get Galloway deep, but Seattle is a damn fine team. Trust me I debated going with Tampa for a long time.

SuperBowl:

Colts defeat Seahawks – Indy’s defense is not as good as some claim, but Manning and the offense can stake them to a lead. You just don’t go 13-0 without a very good squad. I also feel much better about this pick after they won that last game. Going in with three straight losses is a bad sign.

Where I am most likely to be wrong:

*Bears could easily beat the Bucs and they match up very well with Seattle. However they would lose to the Colts.

*Bucs might beat Seattle, but I don’t see them beating the Colts either

*Denver could hold off the Pats and has the running game to beat the Colts, but I don’t see them beating Seattle.

2005 NFL predictions

AFC

NFC

EAST

EAST

1) Patriots: They are not going to win the Super Bowl again. Losing two coordinators and two of your best defensive players (don’t forget Law) is too much. Plus I wonder how much more Dillon has. They’ll contend, and win the division because no one else can take it from them

1) Eagles: Owens or no Owens this is their division – the other WRs are bad (although losing Pinkston actually makes them better), but who will take the crown from them? If he is there, and right, they contend for the Super Bowl. In other words they are probably not contending for a championship. Andy’s got to learn not to lift the franchise tag off good players.

2) Jets: With Pennington back, and upgrade at WR and CB they will be a wildcard. Herm is pretty good. However now that Lamont Jordon is gone I am sure Martin will get hurt, and the DL looks weak against the run.

2) Cowboys: I’m giving them #2 out of respect for Parcells. Roy Williams is overrated, the WRs are a joke: old and slow (Meshawn – who never was that good), enigmatic injury prone deep threat (Glenn – who had one good year), a guy who washed out when asked to be the man (Price) and a good TE. At least they figured out to cut Quincy Morgan. I’m not sure Julius Jones can last for 16 games (although A-Train is not bad for a backup). Bledsoe is above average (barely), but can’t carry a team. At least they improved their defensive talent (Ferguson, Glenn, Henry, Spears, Ware)

3) Bills: If Losman is much better than I expect (and McGahee stays healthy) they may slip into the playoffs. I am a fan of Mularkey and the D and WRs are good. OL might be a little light (on talent, they certainly weigh enough)

3) Giants: if not for Parcells they are my #2. If Manning can figure it out (not be great, just competent) he has Barber (and Jacobs for short yardage), Burress and Toomer (not great, but an above average pair), Shockey (health?) and an improved OL. Coughlin will push this team and the D is not awful, could be a playoff team.

4) Dolphins: For every Jimmy Johnson there is Butch Davis, Dennis Erickson, and Steve Spurrier. Saban was good in college, but I would not bank on it translating up a level. Either way Chambers is one dimensional, they are misusing their talent (Jason Taylor at LB!?), and are being QBed by a guy most famous for hitting his head against a wall. The defense takes a step back, especially the secondary (see Kansas City).

4) Washington: After pissing on Ramsey’s head all last year Gibbs is giving him the job. Of course he also drafted Jason Campbell in the first round (who will be a bust) just to make sure everyone knows he doesn’t really like him. The only other QB on the roster is Brunell who last year proved beyond all shadow of a doubt he is ready for ESPN (Gibbs failure to grasp this really makes me question him). Portis showed he is not the same without the Denver OL and the only WR worth anything on the roster is Moss. The D will be good, although not as good as last year. Basically this franchised will always be mismanaged until Snyder changes. Insert your favorite Sean Taylor/U of M joke here. Ramsey will emerge into a quality NFL starter after he leaves the zoo in 2006.

NORTH

NORTH

1) Steelers: Big Ben will take a step back, but this team is simply too talented at all spots (including coach) not to make #1

1) Vikings: After years of insisting they could scheme their way to a better defense they finally figured out you need talent. Imagine that. The offense will be weaker without Moss, but not awful. However with Smoot, Sharper, Williams, Cowart, and possibly James they will be a better team. No, I did not forget Harris when I wrote that list.

2) Ravens: This should be the year they finally give up on Boller. He has the talent around him now, but still not in him. Look for Anthony Wright (who?) to be starting by December. The D will put them in playoff contention, even though Ray Lewis is not what he once was.

2) Lions: If Garcia was healthy and Mooch made him the starter from Week One I might have them as a playoff team. Although truth be told I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Harrington’s career – Jeff is just better for this season. Might sneak into playoffs even with Joey – this might be his year.

3) Bungles: For all they hype about Marvin Lewis they still haven’t had a winning season. The DL is weak to the run (up the middle) and the secondary is recycled parts – although they did well last year. Jury is still out on Palmer – I’m expecting a guilty verdict.

3) Packers: This is not a knock on the always overrated Favre. The defense will be terrible (they are doing what Minnesota used to do – but because of cap trouble, I don’t think they really believe Jim Bates can cover for a roster of career backups), the coach is subpar, and Walker better not pout. I think Favre will play for several years yet, but if he doesn’t it will not be hard to figure out why.

4) Browns: If anyone can take the first overall pick away from my Niners it is this sorry bunch. There is nothing redeemable about this team (although don’t sleep on new TE Billy Miller – he could be a 50+ catch guy, which is more tan Braylon Edwards will pull in). The only positive is I will never have to hear anyone talk about Dilfer as a quality QB again.

4) Bears: Watch for them in 2006. Although you’ve never seen it, because they are never on TV outside of a mile from Soldiers’ Field, the secondary is young and very good (although cutting McQuarters was stupid if they did not need cap space). They lead a strong defense. Too bad about Grossman. I’ve actually seen about half of his six career games, he might be good, but you can’t go into a season without more at backup. Jeff Blake might have had a good career in the right city, but not here and not now.

SOUTH

SOUTH

1) Colts: I really debated taking the division away from them. Despite all the stats they are a team treading water. I believe the popular phrase is “the window may be closing.” Seriously if they couldn’t figure out to attack new England’s secondary in the playoffs last year, then they may never make the leap. Plus despite Tony Dungy, the D is still suspect, especially off the turf. While adding Corey Simon was huge (how’d they get him under the cap.), he’s more of a quick tackle than a clogger: get some fat bodies at DT people! (Please read that in an Oprah voice girlfriend!)

1) Panthers: First of all this the best division is football, other than the Saints anyone can take the division. I’m going with the Panthers because the D is great (secondary is much better and Jenkins is back), the coach is a lot smarter then people give him credit for, and Jake Delhomme, yes Jake Delhomme, is one of the better QBs in the league. They have depth at WR and RB (someone will have to stay healthy).

2) Jaguars: Just have the look of a team that could take a step. Now that they’ve added a little pass rush that D will be nasty. Unfortunately unless everyone stays healthy (Fred Taylor most of all) so will the offense, but not in the good way.

2) Falcons: They make the playoffs. Even if the WRs are still a suspect corps (and they never use their best guy – Finneran) unless Michael Jenkins wakes up, they never grasp that they should throw to Dunn (or that he is good inside for short yardage), the defense will take a step back, and Vick can’t complete more than 55% of his throws, they are still a good team. Having the fastest player in the league at QB does that.

3) Titans: A mini upset. Despite a horrendous cap purge they still have McNair (who was the best QB in the league for a while even if no one realized it), although I am worried about him playing 15 pounds lighter - boy does he look small. The good news is the backup, Billy Volek, has the quickest release of anyone currently in the league in my mind – very nice throwing motion. Two good RBs (Henry will take over eventually), Bennett is not bad, Calico and Kinney might help – and Troy Edwards is a good #3. Still have the bulk of their OL. And while the D (especially the secondary) is weak, reading the roster still reveals the names Haysworth, Bullock, Tank, and possibly Pacman. I’m giving them 3rd out of respect for Jeff Fisher, who will be smart enough let it all hang out and not pretend they are contenders.

3) Saints: I know, I know, very ironic to put them third given what I said above, and that Katrina will mean they play 16 games on the road – a killer no matter who you are. However they do have talent. I do think Brooks is always a worry (he threw the ball BACKWARDS to nobody – have you seen this highlight?), and Horn may relax now that he has been paid. While the DL is great the linebackers are awful. Finally while I once liked Haslett at some point we have to recognize they’ve had a lot of talent over the past few years and never gone anywhere. I do give him props for admitting to roiding and calling out the Steelers of the 70s.

4) Texans: Conversely I am indeed pounding Dom Capers (or at least the GM Casserly). How about a left tackle? Or a receiver to take pressure off budding great Andre Johnson? And why bring in an injury prone hotdog (Buchanon) when Aaron Glenn was still playing at a high level? And I think Carr may have reached his plateau.

4) Bucs: Gruden won with Tony’s team. Lets see what he can do with his own. I’ll admit if anyone can recapture the magic Griese showed when he first came into the league it is John. They have the skill position talent. Too bad you need an OL too. And while the defense is good, it is not what it was (thin and old).

WEST

WEST

1) Chiefs: I’d like to quote myself (which I usually frown on) talking about Minnesota: “After years of insisting they could scheme there way to a better defense they finally figured out you need talent. Imagine that.” Patrick Surtain and Shawn Knight will finally stop the bleeding and either Kendrell Bell or Derrick Johnson will upgrade the linebackers (I somehow doubt both), Carlos Hall will work into the rotation. And remember the name Jared Allen (DE). Priest Holmes has enough left (and Larry Johnson to spell him). Just hope Trent Green stays healthy because even Chris Leak is better than those other two stiffs.

1) Rams: Just as in the South there are three teams that can win the division. But that is a reflection on their collective weaknesses, not strengths. After careful consideration I’ll go with St. Louis because they beat Seattle three times last season. They are above average, but not much more, across the board. Holt is overrated. Steven Jackson will be good, but get hurt. Little should be in prison. The secondary will be what kills them if they fall short. And I can manage a game better than Mike Martz. Normally when someone says this they are being a blowhard, but I am not: there is no doubt in my mind that I could manage a game better than Mike Martz.

2) Chargers: I like Marty, and LT is easily the best RB in the league (I started this bandwagon – I took him first overall in my fantasy draft two years ago). The D is good (but thin at DT). Why are they behind KC? That was Brees’s career year, he’ll never be that good again. Also I see the kicker costing them two games this year.

2) Seahawks: Can we get Brett Favre? No playoffs for you!! Holmgren’s last year (Ray Rhodes looses respect as defense coordinator this year too); I really think he has only held on as long as he has because the national media ignores the Northwest. Look for a huge year from Shaun Alexander as he brilliantly landed a contract that doesn’t allow the team to franchise him after the season. Cha-ching!

3) Broncos: Please. Exhibit A: Jake Plummer (remember the left-handed pick? Wasn’t that a fun memory). Exhibit B: The Browns DL (Warren is okay for a rotation, as is a health C. Brown). And while it pains me to say it…Exhibit C: 42 year old Jerry Rice might have made the roster. Bell is injury prone. At least Champ Bailey is good. Of course they made the playoffs last year with more or less the same roster. Clarett will be completely forgotten outside of Columbus in a few of years (and stupidly followed the Ricky Williams school of rookie contracts: all incentives, no big guaranteed signing bonus – opps).

3) Cardinals: Boy do I want to put them higher, because they could slip into the playoffs. Depth at RB and WR, okay OL, improving defense, and a borderline great coach. But it too much for me to look past the second most washed-up QB in the league (see Brunell, Mark). They’d be better off with Steve DeBerg.

4) Raiders: What!?! Have I been stealing from Randy’s stash!? They have the best WR in the league along with Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry!! And Lamont Jordon is going to blow up! Granted. However let’s take this from the top: You have a meddlesome owner who the game has passed by (look closely at their drafts) – I still can’t believe they mad the Super Bowl three years ago (I’ll credit Jerry still having a little Mojo left then), a milquetoast coach, and the streakiest QB in NFL history. Sorry, thanks for playing. And do we want to talk about this defense? Old (thanks Al) and under talented. Charles Woodson doesn’t care anymore. Quick – name a linebacker on this team! There is a reason no one is buying tickets.

4) 49ers: Ugh. Similar to Oakland and Washington the trouble starts at the top; they will never be a force again until ownership changes. I am thrilled they are starting Rattay. No, seriously. While he is atrocious, I don’t want Smith to get destroyed. Barlow will rebound because no matter how bad an offense is, there is always one good player and it sure won’t be the receivers. Eric Johnson is injury prone, Brandon Lloyd has great hands (made the best catch I have ever seen – in 2003), but is slow and inconstant, and I’m not looking for Arnaz Battle in Honolulu after the season. Honestly could you have named any of those guys? And I don’t buy Frank Gore will be the man. Having a death on a team would hurt even mentality of even the best squad. This is my team, but I am hunkering down for a while. I already don’t trust Nolan as GM. Two years for Johnnie Morton? Cutting two reliable offensive linemen (one who was still young and learning) to draft the slowest lineman in the draft (in the third round!? Along with Gore)? Why are we trading away a good 4-3 DE (Engleberger) for a first round bust (Middlebrooks – who didn’t make the team!)? I’m not sure of him as a coach either – he looks as though he is forcing his personal into his system rather than adjusting to the talent. Who is going to be the nose tackle in this 3-4? Why are we moving a pass rushing DE with back problems to linebacker? I’m look forward to having the #1 pick overall again – it will be the only suspense I get.

PLAYOFFS

PLAYOFFS

Wildcard Teams

Wildcard Teams

Jags

Falcons

Jets (could have been the Ravens)

Cowboys (could not put the Lions over them)

Wildcard Winners

Wildcard Winners

Colts

Vikings

Pats

Falcons

Divisional Winners

Divisional Winners

Steelers

Panthers

Chiefs

Vikings (over Philly because this is where the trouble with Owens starts to matter.

AFC Champ

NFC Champ

Chiefs (picked them over the Steelers because while they have more weaknesses, they also have more strengths. And Cowher’s playoff record is hardly exemplary – and because I needed a few upsets in the playoffs)

Panthers

Super Bowl winner: Panthers. Shocking given how conservative I was picking division winners isn’t it? Remember that Carolina has Super Bowl experience and despite an awful start and a bunch of injuries they were the hottest team in the league in the second half of the season last year. Jake Delhomme showed he could carry a team. The defense showed that in 2003. Chiefs defense isn’t quite enough and their WRs still stink. (Note: I picked Carolina before Dr. Z did – problem was I sat on these predictions until after my fantasy drafts)